| 摘要: |
| 摘要：当前，中国制造业企业积极探索出海路径，海外绿地投资逐渐受到青睐。然而，各国税制差异巨大，包括反税基侵蚀和利润转移项目等新规则不断涌现，对中国企业海外绿地投资产生影响。基于220家企业问卷调查数据，在系统考察税收协定条款、税务合规成本、跨境税务争议及相互协商程序对中国制造业企业海外绿地投资决策的影响之后发现：避免双重征税条款、股息利息特许权使用费条款和税收优惠区条款对企业海外绿地投资计划有显著正向影响；税务合规成本对投资计划有显著负向影响；跨境税务争议具有负面溢出效应，且显著降低未来投资概率，而使用相互协商程序则有缓解作用；同时，企业规模在税务影响机制中有重要调节作用，大型企业对税务争议更敏感但也更能从相互协商程序中受益。研究结果为优化税收政策、提升企业国际税务管理能力提供以下具体建议：加强对MAP有效性的宣传和教育，提高企业对这一机制的认知和信心；建立成本分担机制，降低企业使用MAP的经济负担；制定针对不同规模企业的差异化扶持政策等。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：绿地投资；税收协定条款；税务合规成本；跨境税务争议；“一带一路” |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F125.3 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The Impact of Tax Mechanisms on Chinese Manufacturing Firms’ Overseas Greenfield Investment Decision |
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PAN Bin1，GUO Jie-qun21,2
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1.(1.Tsinghua University PBCSF;2.Ningbo China Institute for Supply Chain Innovation)
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：In the context of profound global economic changes unseen in a century,Chinese manufacturing firms are actively exploring international expansion pathways,with overseas greenfield investment increasingly favored.However,significant disparities in national tax systems,along with emerging new rules such as anti-base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) measures and global minimum tax reform,are influencing Chinese enterprises’ greenfield investment abroad.This study uses survey data to systematically examine how tax treaty provisions,tax compliance costs,cross-border tax disputes,and mutual agreement procedures affect the overseas greenfield investment decisions of Chinese manufacturing firms.The results show that provisions to avoid double taxation,clauses on dividends,interest,and royalties,as well as preferential tax zone provisions,have a significant positive impact on investment plans.In contrast,tax compliance costs are significantly negatively correlated with investment intentions.Cross border tax disputes exert negative spillover effects,significantly reducing the likelihood of future investments,while mutual agreement procedures help to mitigate these effects.Additionally,firm size plays a key moderating role in the impact of tax mechanisms:large enterprises are more sensitive to tax disputes but also benefit more from mutual agreement procedures.The findings provide concrete policy suggestions for optimizing tax policy and enhancing firms’ international tax management capabilities. |
| Key words: Key words：Greenfield Investment;Tax Treaty Provisions;Tax Compliance Costs;Cross-border Tax Disputes;Belt & Road |
