| 摘要: |
| 2023年我国物价涨幅仅为0.2%，成为近十年的最低位，这势必要求政府发力，运用积极的宏观政策进行调控，提振市场信心。物价运行对税收增长的影响值得深入分析，在此基础上有助于更好地研判税收经济走势并采取有针对性的调控措施。选取2012－2022年中国省级面板数据，构建面板VAR模型，分析物价与税收的动态相互影响，并进一步探讨物价与增值税、消费税、企业所得税等主要税种多个变量间的动态关系。实证结果表明，物价与税收之间存在双向因果关系，物价水平对税收具有先强后弱的正向影响，且这一影响长期持续；税收对物价水平在短期内能够产生较强的负向影响，但长期趋于零。物价水平变动对税收的冲击在中部地区、中等收入群体中表现最强烈；税收变动对物价的冲击则在西部地区、高收入群体中表现最强烈。最后，从稳定物价和税收政策入手，提出要强调跨周期和逆周期宏观调控相结合，注重税收政策的提质增效；优化税制结构，提高直接税比重；继续实施减税降费政策，以扩大内需为突破点，提振市场信心。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：供应链金融；应收账款融资；金融数字化；金融风险防范；金融监管 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:DF438；F832.1 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The Analysis of Automotive Supply Chain Accounts Receivable Financing Risk and the Path Selection of Precaution |
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ZHANG Xin-yue
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（International School of Law and Finance,East China University of Political Science and Law）
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years,new energy vehicles have become a new fashion in the automotive industry,and the guarantee of supply and production of the automotive supply chain has become the focus of the industry.In the context of the digital transformation of supply chain finance,faced with the dilemma that the financing needs of upstream suppliers of the automobile industry chain cannot be met,commercial banks and other financial institutions continue to innovate accounts receivable financing models,which play a certain role in solving the upstream financing plight of the automobile industry chain,but at the same time,it also brings many financing risks.For example,the enterprise credit risk under “weak confirmation”,information asymmetry and credit evaluation risk,uncertainty risk of “future accounts receivable”,data quality and data security risk,industry exogenous risk,improper financial supervision and so on.This paper proposes the following feasible ways to prevent the financing risks of automobile supply chain receivables and improve the toughness and safety level of automobile supply chain:Using the method of “inquiry＋commitment” to assist in judging the credit of financing enterprises;improving the information disclosure and credit evaluation index system;using the reverse audit,external confirmations and the dynamic systems approach to evaluate the certainty of future accounts receivable;enhancing safeguards for data quality and data security,strengthening the data regulation;comprehensively assessing the exogenous risks of the industry;further perfecting the financial supervision. |
| Key words: Key words：Supply Chain Finance;Accounts Receivable Financing;Financial Digitization;Financial Risk Precaution;Financial Supervision |
