| 摘要: |
| 广义上的个人养老金，即第三支柱养老保险，自1991年始于个人储蓄型养老保险，开展了大量的产品型和投资型探索，最终个人账户制大范围推开，这一市场化业态自发探索向系统性制度安排的转型过程本质上是从产品型向个人账户制的变迁。受限于多重制度障碍，产品型个人养老金的发展始终相对滞后。2022年个人养老金上升为国家制度安排，个人账户制存在参保门槛低、普惠性强和待遇可携带等独特优势。未来个人养老金制度还将深化转型并实现第三支柱的整合，社会需求还将增加，待遇普惠性将不断增强，建议多措并举提升个人养老金参保率，不断提高个人养老金制度的可持续性，完善个人养老金的保险税收优惠和经办服务等环节。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：物价；税收收入；面板VAR模型；税制结构 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F810.2 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：国家社会科学基金项目“推进共同富裕的数字财税治理研究”（22VRC121）。 |
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| The Dynamic Relationship between Prices and Taxation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model |
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BAI Yan-feng,JIA Yi-zhen
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(School of Public Finance and Tax,Central University of Finance and Economics)
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| Abstract: |
| The price increase in 2023 was only 0.2%,becoming the lowest in nearly a decade.This will inevitably require the government to exert efforts and use active macroeconomic policies to regulate and boost market confidence.The impact of price fluctuations on tax growth deserves in depth analysis,on this basis,it helps us to better assess the trend of tax economy and take targeted regulatory measures.This article selects provincial panel data in China from 2012 to 2022,constructs a panel VAR model,analyzes the dynamic interaction between prices and taxes,and further explores the dynamic relationship between prices and multiple variables of major taxes such as value-added tax,consumption tax,and corporate income tax.The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between prices and taxation.Price levels have a positive impact on taxation that is first strong and then weak,and this impact is long-lasting.Taxation can have a strong negative impact on price levels in the short term,but tends to zero in the long term.The impact of price level changes on taxation is most pronounced in the central region and middle-income groups;and the impact of tax changes on prices is most pronounced in the western region and high-income groups.Finally,starting from stabilizing prices and tax policies,it is proposed to emphasize the combination of cross cycle and countercyclical macroeconomic regulation,and focus on improving the quality and efficiency of tax policies;optimize the tax system structure and increase the proportion of direct taxes;and continue to implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies,with expanding domestic demand as the breakthrough point to boost market confidence. |
| Key words: Key words： Price;Tax Revenue;Panel VAR Model;Tax System Structure |
