| 摘要: |
| 在逆全球化趋势日益凸显和经济环境不确定性加剧等多重背景下，经济韧性已被视为衡量一国或地区经济应对不确定性的重要指标。本文将经济韧性的讨论引入制造业和生产性服务行业领域，基于2011－2022年中国30个省份的数据，从耦合协调视角深入讨论两大行业韧性的内在关联、演进特征及影响因素。研究结果显示：（1）从全国层面来看，两行业韧性水平整体上均呈现增长态势，其耦合协调水平虽然在2015－2020年间则经历“W”型波动，但总体上二者韧性的耦合协调水平在波动中提升至初级耦合协调阶段；（2）在八大经济区层面，耦合协调水平在区域间出现显著的分化特征，表现为南部沿海及东北经济区的协调水平下降，而大西南经济区表现出上升趋势；（3）核密度估计结果发现，耦合协调水平在提升进程中呈现地区差距扩大的事实特征，且八大经济区各自的走势具有异质性；（4）回归结果表明，外商直接投资、信息化和市场化促进了耦合协调水平提升。为适应全球经济结构变化，政府需进一步加强行业支持，推动协同发展，制定差异化战略，注意多方面影响因素，以促进全国经济的均衡与持续增长。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：耦合协调；制造业；生产性服务业；韧性 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F429.9；F424 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on the Resilience Association between Provincial Manufacturing and Productive Service Industries in China from the Perspective of Coupling Coordination |
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WANG Ya-fei1,WANG Xi1,CHEN Ye21,2
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1.（1.School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University;2.School of Economics and Management,the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen)）
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| Abstract: |
| Amid an increasingly evident trend towards Anti-globalization and heightened economic uncertainty,economic resilience has become an important indicator for assessing a nation's or region's capacity to handle economic volatility.This paper introduces the discussion of economic resilience into the sectors of manufacturing and productive services,drawing on data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022,and delves deeply into the intrinsic connections,evolutionary characteristics,and influencing factors of resilience in these two major industries from a coupling coordination perspective.The findings indicate:(1) Nationally,both industries generally show an upward trend in resilience levels,though their coupling coordination level experienced “W-shaped” fluctuations during 2015-2020,ultimately advancing to an initial stage of coupling coordination;(2) At the level of the eight major economic zones,there was significant regional differentiation in coupling coordination levels,with a decline in the southern coastal and northeastern economic zones and an upward trend in the southwestern economic zone;(3) Kernel density estimates reveal an increasing regional disparity in the enhancement process of coupling coordination levels,with each of the eight major economic zones displaying heterogeneity;(4) Regression results indicate that foreign direct investment, informatization, and marketization have facilitated the enhancement of coupling coordination levels.To adapt to changes in the global economic structure,the government needs to further strengthen industry support,promote collaborative development,devise differentiated strategies,and consider various influencing factors to foster balanced and sustained national economic growth. |
| Key words: Key words：Coupling Coordination;Manufacturing Industry;Productive Service Industry;Resilience |
