| 摘要: |
| 随着全球气候与环境风险的日益显现，对气候与环境风险进行量化评估得到人们越来越多的重视。具有前瞻性的情景设定成为环境气候风险评估的关键一环。对气候情景设定在环境气候风险分析中的必要性，以及国际上相关机构对气候情景设定相关的政策和实践进行总结。目前，国际认可度较大、应用较多的是NGFS发布的相关气候情景设定。对NGFS发布的最新长、短期气候情景设定以及可调整的相关政策进行总结概述，并对环境气候风险应用的模型分析框架进行梳理总结。依据目前气候情景设定及模型分析在实践探索中存在的问题给出相关政策建议，为我国环境气候工作者评估环境气候风险提供有价值的参考借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：气候情景；环境气候风险；NGFS |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F062.2 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Overview of the Development of the Latest Climate Scenario Setting and Model Analysis Framework |
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LI Yan-ni1,CHEN Feng21,2
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1.(1.Chongqing Branch People’s Bank of China;2.Chongqing Institute of Architectural Technicians)
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| Abstract: |
| With the increasing emergence of global climate and environmental risks,the quantitative assessment of climate and environmental risks has been paid more and more attention.Forward-looking scenario setting has become a key part of environmental and climate risk assessment.This paper summarizes the necessity of climate scenario setting in environmental climate risk analysis and the policies and practices of relevant international institutions on climate scenario setting.At present,the climate scenarios published by NGFS are widely recognized and applied internationally.This article provides a summary of the latest long-term and short-term climate scenarios published by the NGFS and the relevant policies that can be adjusted.The model analysis framework of environmental and climate risk application is summarized.According to the problems existing in the current climate scenario setting and model analysis,the paper gives some relevant policy suggestions,which can provide valuable reference for Chinese environmental climate workers to assess environmental climate risks. |
| Key words: Key words：Climate Scenario;Environmental and Climate Risks;NGFS |
