| 摘要: |
| 在当前国际环境不确定性加大的情况下，能源进口波动与国内绿色金融发展的相互影响成为一个应当切实关注的问题。通过建立包含能源进口、能源价格波动、经济政策不确定性和绿色金融发展在内的四变量时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）模型，实证分析2010－2022年主要化石能源进口与绿色金融发展之间的相互影响和脉冲响应关系。结果表明：(1)能源进口的扩张在短期内会对中国绿色金融市场造成波动，长期内会促进中国绿色金融市场的发展；而绿色金融的发展对能源进口具有正向的促进作用，和能源进口呈现良性的循环。(2)能源进口对绿色金融发展的作用随经济政策不确定性和能源价格指数波动的变化而变化，呈现出非线性特征。(3)在国际政治环境不稳定时，石油对于国内经济的影响表现突出，相对重要性高于煤炭和天然气。石油进口波动在长期情况下提高本国经济政策不确定性，但同时也促进绿色金融的发展。研究凸显了深化能源机制体制改革的重要意义，应充分发挥绿色金融市场对能源贸易的激励作用，并通过深化国际交流与合作来降低国际政策不确定性对中国绿色金融发展的影响。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：能源进口；经济政策不确定性；能源价格；绿色金融发展；TVP-VAR模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F830.9 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“美国金融监管周期、银行内生微观激励与我国金融监管的有效性研究”（24YJA790008）；对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“我国商业银行不良资产证券化的风险自留监管有效性研究”（22YB11）。 |
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| Energy Import and Green Finance Development in China——An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model |
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GUO Gui-xia,CAO Qing
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（Institute of International Economy,University of International Business and Economics）
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| Abstract: |
| With rising uncertainties of international conditions,the issue of the interactions between energy import and green finance development should be paid more attention to.Based on the four-variable TVP-VAR model with energy imports,energy price fluctuation,economic policy uncertainty and the development of green finance market,this paper analyzes the interactions and impulse responses between energy import and green finance development from 2010 to 2022,with emphasis on the function of energy import in green finance development,which has only attracted limited study in the literature.Several findings have been obtained.①The expansion of energy import will lead to fluctuations of green finance market in the short term,and stimulate the development of green finance market in the long term.Meanwhile,the development of green finance has a positive promoting effect on energy trade,showing a virtuous cycle with energy import.②The influence of energy import on the development of green finance is significantly and nonlinearly influenced by economic policy uncertainty and the fluctuation of energy price index.③When the international political environment is unstable,oil has a prominent impact on the domestic economy in the long term,and its relative importance is higher than that of coal and natural gas.Fluctuations of oil import increase domestic economic uncertainties but promote its green finance development.Based on these findings,it is suggested that the government should open wider to trade and deepen the reform of Chinese energy system,further develop green finance market for energy trade,so as to achieve the virtuous cycle,and deepen international exchange and cooperation to mitigate the impact of fluctuations in energy imports on green finance development in China caused by world economic policy uncertainty. |
| Key words: Key words：Energy Import;Economic Policy Uncertainty;Energy Prices;Green Finance Development;TVP-VAR Model |
