| 摘要: |
| “新常态”下的中国经济增速放缓，增长动力不足，传统的需求刺激政策失效，经济发展出现新的特征，对我国宏观调控提出了新的挑战。本文在“新常态”特征事实的分析基础上，构建包含金融机构的三部门模型，分析财政政策和货币政策分别对产出和政府财政收入的影响。模型引入税率、利率以及货币数量增长率等指标，分析指标变化对社会产出的影响。在事实分析和理论分析基础上提出政策建议：一是注重供给管理，弱化需求管理在政府宏观调控中的地位；二是应实施减税的财政政策和降息的货币政策以应对“新常态”下宏观经济失衡；三是在全局性宏观调控的同时进行定向调控，通过定向降息以及定向税收减免的政策推动产业结构优化。 |
| 关键词: 新常态；供给管理；减税；货币政策 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F830.3 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The Choice of Macro-Economic Regulation Under the “New Normality” of China’s Economic——Based on the Study of the Indefinite Survival Model |
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HAN Shu-yuan
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People’s Bank of China，Chongqing Operations Office
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| Abstract: |
| Under the “New Normal”，China’s economy growth is slowing down，with insufficient growing impetus and malfunction of traditional demand stimulus policy.New features appear in economic development.Such new features presents new challenges to China’s macroeconomic regulation.Based on stylized facts research in the New Normal，this paper，using the “Three-sector Model” of financial institutions，analyzes the influence of fiscal policy and monetary policy on public outcome and financial revenue.The “Three-sector Model” introduces indicators such as tax rate，interest rate and money quantity growth rate，and analyzes how they affect public outcome.In the last part，this paper proposes policy suggestions based on empirical study and theoretical study.Firstly，attach importance to supply management and weaken the influence of demand management on government macroeconomic regulation.Secondly，implement tax cut and interest cut policy to tackle macroeconomic imbalance in the New Normal.Thirdly，conduct overall macroeconomic regulation，and exercise directional control，using directional interest cut and directional tax concessions to promote industrial structure optimization. |
| Key words: New Normal；Supply Management；Tax Cut；Monetary Policy |
