| 摘要: |
| 基于永续盘存法，运用双曲线效率递减的“年龄 效率”模式首次系统估算得到“一带一路”沿线50个国家1995年至2018年的资本投入，并进一步对沿线国家资本投入及其资本回报率的时空演变特征进行分析。研究表明：沿线国家资本投入水平整体呈波动中上升趋势，尤其在2007年后整体呈现资本投入积累加速的典型特征；区域间及区域内部各国之间资本投入差异较大，其中东亚地区积累水平最高、南亚地区次之、东欧地区和西亚地区水平相近、中亚地区积累水平最少；“一带一路”沿线国家整体资本产出比水平呈现下降特征，各地区投资效率得到不断改善；“一带一路”沿线国家资本回报率表现出较强“顺周期性”特征，且亚洲地区资本投入回报率整体高于欧洲地区，区域间资本回报率逐步收敛的趋势不容忽视。 |
| 关键词: 一带一路；资本投入；双曲线效率递减模式；资本回报率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F114.4 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The Estimation of Capital Stock and the Return on Capital Ratio for the Belt and Road Countries |
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CAO Yue-qun，CUI Huan
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Chongqing University，Chongqing 400044
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the perpetual inventory method and the age-efficiency model，50 countries productive capital stocks and return on capital are estimated from 1995 to 2018 along the Belt and Road.The research shows that the productive capital stocks of the countries along the route presents an upward trend in fluctuations，and overall，the growth rate of productive capital stocks was slow before 2007，after that the rate was increased dramatically.The regional differences of productive capital stocks are significant，the capital accumulation of the East Asia is the highest，the South Asia is the second，the Eastern Europe and West Asia is at the similar level，and Central Asia is the lowest.The capital output ratio of countries along the Belt and Road declines after 2007，and the investment efficiency gets great improvement in various regions along the route.The return on capital ratio of the countries along the Belt and Road presents an obvious procyclical form，Asias return on capital stocks is higher than that in Europe，and the convergence trend of return on capital between regions is clear. |
| Key words: The Belt and Road; Productive Capital Stock; Hyperbolic Efficiency Function; Return on Capital Ratio |
