| 摘要: |
| 人均GDP是衡量一国经济发展水平的重要指标，不论是其水平值的变化还是其 相对排名的变化，都有重大的研究意义与现实意义。本文选取联合国193个成员国作为比较范 围，得到2017年我国人均名义GDP排名为第75位。在进行人均GDP排名跨期比较时，为了保证 跨期可比，本文选取了人口数量较大且各期数据完整的91个国家作为样本，计算我国各年经购 买力平价调整的人均实际GDP排名，发现1960年至2014年，我国在91个样本国家中的排名总体 而言呈快速平稳的持续上升趋势。本文也利用与中国有相似增长逻辑的国家和地区的数据所呈 现出的规律外推中国未来一段时间的经济增长，发现到2020年，中国仍然能维持每年6%以上 的人均实际GDP增长率；到2040年，中国的人均实际GDP将达到美国的60%至70%，相当于日 本、韩国等现阶段的水平。 |
| 关键词: 人均GDP；排名；预测；中国经济 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F812 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Ranking and Forecasting China's GDP per Capita |
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WANG Wen BIAN Yongzu LIU Yanjie
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Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China
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| Abstract: |
| GDP per capita is an important indicator in measuring a country’s economic development. Both changes in the levels and rankings of GDP per capita are of great academic and practical importance. This paper compares China’s nominal GDP per capita to that of the 193 member states of the United Nations, and finds that China ranked 75th in 2017. When studying the historical ranking of China’s real GDP per capita, this paper chooses 91 most populous countries as the comparing scope, all of which have complete data sets in the whole period, in order to ensure the comparability over time. This paper calculates China’s ranking from 1960 to 2014, and finds that in general the ranking has increased fast and steadily. This paper also applies the observed growth patterns of the countries and regions which have similar growing logic with China, and to forecast China's future economic growth. It is estimated that the growth rate of China’s GDP per capita can remain over 6% per annum by 2020; Moreover, China’s real GDP per capita will reach 60%-70% of that of the United States, similar to the current levels of Japan and South Korea. |
| Key words: GDP per Capita; Ranking; Forecasting; China’s Economy |
