| 摘要: |
| 2018年以来，中美贸易争端持续升级，对两国经贸领域的影响不断释放。本文在中 观产业层面，基于HS国际产品分类标准，运用贸易竞争力指数、贸易互补性指数、动态显性比 较优势指数等指标，对中美两国主要涉外产业贸易依存度进行测算，对两国外贸竞争关系、互 补关系及我国涉外产业结构发展演变进行分析。在此基础上，对中美双方三批惩罚性关税清单 的实施对两国主要外贸产业的影响进行分析，对风险从贸易领域向我国宏观经济金融领域传导 的机制进行研究。基于上述影响及风险分析，参考贸易战背景下美国扶持涉税产业发展的配套 举措，对我国短期内有效化解贸易战冲击、长期内稳步推进涉外产业转型升级研提政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 中美贸易战；贸易依存度；风险传导机制；应对举措 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F831.6 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Impact Analysis of Sino-US Trade War on Trade-related Industries and Risk Transmission Mechanism -Based on Calculation of Sino-US Trade Interdependency |
|
SONG Xiangyan KONG Yifang
|
|
PBOC Representative Office for the Americas
|
| Abstract: |
| The Sino-US Trade disputes have become increasingly fierce since 2018, releasing impact on trade and macro economy in both China and the US. In this thesis, the paper focuses on the medium level of industry, calculate the Sino-US trade interdependency of main trade-related industries by Trade Competitiveness Index, Trade Complementary Index and Cr based on the HS Standard of International Trade Classification, to analyze the competitive and complementary relationship between China and the US, as well as the development and evolution of trade-related industries in China. Based on that, the paper analyzes the impact of the panitive tariff lists published by both countries on main trade-related industries in China and the US, study the risk transmission mechanism from the field of trade to macro economy and finance, and then raised policy proposals for China’s government to effectively cope with the impact of trade war in the short term and propel the transmission and upgrading of trade-related industries in the long run, refering to the supporting measures adopted by the US on the background of the trade war. |
| Key words: Sino-US Trade War；Trade Interdependency；Risk Transmission Mechanism；Countermeasures |
