| 摘要: |
| 本文立足社会融资规模作为中介目标的货币政策传导机制，构建完善的货币政 策目标指标体系，选取M2和人民币贷款为社会融资规模的对比指标，基于向自回归（VAR） 模型，利用2002年至2017年6月的季度数据，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应等方 法，对社会融资规模与货币政策最终目标、操作目标之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表 明，现阶段社会融资规模作为我国货币政策中介目标具有较高的有效性和合理性。 |
| 关键词: 社会融资规模；货币政策；中介目标；操作目标；最终目标 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F832.0 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：2017年度浙江省金融学会重点课题（201735）、2016年度浙江省金融教育基金会课题（2016Y13）、2016年度浙江 省哲学社会科学规划课题（16NDJC317YBM）研究成果。 |
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| Analysis of the Effectiveness of Aggregate Financing to the Economy As the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy—Compared with M2 and Loans |
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Xu Jiayang
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Zhejiang Research Center for Local Financial Development，Zhejiang Financial College
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| Abstract: |
| Based on aggregate financing to the economy as the intermediary targets of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the paper constructs perfect index system of the monetary policy, selects M2 and Loans to compare with aggregate financing to the economy, uses the VAR model and the quarterly data from 2002 to June 2017, through cointegration test, granger causality test and impulse response methods, analysing the relationship between aggregate financing to the economy and the target of monetary policy. The results show that aggregate financing to the economy is of high validity and rationality as the intermediate target of monetary policy. |
| Key words: Aggregate Financing to the Economy; Monetary Policy; Intermediate Targets; Operational Targets; Ultimate Targets |
