| 摘要: |
| 目前汇率与房价之间关系的研究还不多。本文梳理了汇率变化对房价波动的传导机制，构建了汇率变化与房价波动的动态理论模型，进一步论述了汇率与房价的相互关系。在此基础上，引入利率、货币供应量等宏观指标，通过构造MVGARCH-BEKK模型和变参数模型，实证检验了我国汇率变化与房价波动的相互关系，结果发现:在房价上涨期间，汇率对房价增速的影响远超过利率和M2对房价增速的影响，这可能间接说明了国外资本或国内准备投资国外的资本，对国内房价增长产生了显著的“助推剂”作用。 |
| 关键词: 汇率；房价；货币政策 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Fluctuations in china--The Dynamic Transmission mechanism and empirical Data |
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Song Lingxi,Han Xintao
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(Pass College of Chongqing Technology and Business University ; College of Economics and Business Administration)
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| Abstract: |
| Currently, the studies on the relationship between exchange rates and housing prices are less. This paper reviews the transmission mechanism for the changes of exchange rates on the housing prices’ fluctuations, then builds theoretical model on the changes in exchange rates and the housing prices’ fluctuations, further discusses the relationship between exchange rates and housing price. Based on this, introducing interest rates and money supply, this paper estimates MVGARCH-BEKK model and time-varying model. The results show that the impact of exchange rates on the housing prices’ growth is much more than interest rates and M2 during the housing prices’ growth, which may indirectly illustrate the foreign capital and domestic capital preparing to invest abroad, play a significant role "booster" for housing prices. |
| Key words: Exchange Rates; Housing Prices; Monetary Policy |
