| 摘要: |
| 历史经验表明，在系统杠杆不断升高时，当局都会采取去杠杆措施来降低系统性风险，维护金融系统的稳定。去杠杆过程又会影响经济增长，二者之间存在较复杂的动态关系。我国目前正在实施供给侧改革， “去杠杆”是五大任务之一，如何在这一过程继续保持经济的稳定增长值得关注。本文搜集全球31个国家在1980-2008年期间去杠杆周期中的相关数据，深入探索去杠杆对金融脆弱性的影响，以及去杠杆进程与经济增长的相互关系。通过实证分析得出:去杠杆程度与经济增长损失呈正相关。中央银行的资产规模、经常项目余额这两项均与去杠杆过程中GDP增速损失呈负相关。去杠杆时长、初期的通胀率和实际利率，都与去杠杆程度呈正相关。 |
| 关键词: 去杠杆；金融脆弱性；经济增长；实证分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Deleveraging,Financial Frigility and economic growth——empirical analysis of 31 countries in the World |
|
Li Yanni,Zhang Erchong
|
|
(The Pepople’s Bank of China, Chongqing Operations Office;School of Economics and Business Administration，Chongqing University)
|
| Abstract: |
| Historical experience shows that, when the systematic leverage ratio is rising, the authorities will take deleveraging measures to reduce systemic risk and maintain the stability of the financial system. The deleveraging process will affect the economic growth, which exists complex dynamic relationship between them. China is implementing the supply-side reform, of which deleveraging is among the five tasks, how to maintain stable economic growth in this deleveraging process is worthy of attention. This paper examines the deleveraging cycles experienced by31 countries around the world from 1980 to 2008, exploring in depth the relationship among deleveraging，financial fragility and economic growth. Empirical analysis shows that the degree of deleveraging is positively related to the loss of economic growth. The size of the central bank's assets and the current account balance are negatively correlated with the loss of GDP growth in the deleveraging process. The duration of deleveraging, initial inflation and real interest rates are positively correlated with deleveraging. |
| Key words: Deleveraging; Financial Fragility; Economic Growth；Empirical Analysis |
