| 摘要: |
| 摘要：本文基于非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型，实证检验2006－2024年中国财政政策（税收变动）与货币政策（利率变动）对产出的非对称效应。通过分解税收与利率的正负向冲击，研究发现：长短期内减税对GDP的刺激效应均显著强于增税的抑制效应；加息和降息对GDP的当期影响接近对称，长期效应均微弱。建议注重财政货币政策方向协同，避免“政策冲突”，强化非对称效应，在经济衰退期优先实施减税，在经济过热期，优先加息抑制通胀。 |
| 关键词: 关键词： NARDL模型；非对称效应；财政政策；货币政策 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F822.0 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on the Asymmetric Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Output——An Empirical Study Based on the NARDL Model |
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JIANG Tao，YI Zhi-feng，CHEN Ping，LIANG Min，TIAN Xiao-chun，YU Meng-qing
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(Xiamen Branch of the People’s Bank of China)
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：Based on the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model,this paper empirically tests the asymmetric effects of China’s fiscal policy (tax changes) and monetary policy (interest rate changes) on output from 2006 to 2024.By decomposing the positive and negative shocks of taxes and interest rates,the study finds that:the stimulating effect of tax cuts on GDP is significantly stronger than the inhibitory effect of tax increases both in the short and long term;the current impact of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts is nearly symmetric,while their long-term effects are both weak.It is suggested to focus on the directional coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to avoid “policy conflicts”,strengthen the asymmetric effects,give priority to implementing tax cuts during economic recessions,and prioritize interest rate hikes to curb inflation during economic overheating. |
| Key words: Key words：NARDL Model；Asymmetric Effect；Fiscal Policy；Monetary Policy |
