| 摘要: |
| 摘要：从“双支柱”角度引入房地产需求和房价因素建立六部门的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡（NK-DSGE）模型，研究房地产价格是否应纳入货币政策调控框架。分析结果表明，在考虑“货币政策＋宏观审慎政策”双支柱的情况下，货币政策变动会对房价波动产生持续性影响，即货币政策主动干预房价是有效的；纳入房价因素的货币政策较未纳入房价因素的货币政策与宏观审慎政策搭配的效果更优，即对宏观经济和金融稳定的负面冲击更小，更快回归均衡；企业技术冲击、货币政策冲击均较房屋需求冲击和房屋价格冲击对中长期经济增速、投资的影响更强烈；同时，在这4种冲击下，考虑房价因素的货币政策产生的福利损失均小于未考虑房价因素的货币政策产生的福利损失。本文不仅丰富了资产价格与货币政策关系的研究成果，更为中央银行在“双支柱”框架下如何更有效选择货币政策提供了思路。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：房地产价格；货币政策；宏观审慎政策；NK-DSGE |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F830.31 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：国家社会科学基金西部项目“数字货币风险防范法治保障研究”（22XFX008）。 |
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| Should the Real Estate Prices be Included in the Framework of Monetary Policy?——Based on China’s Six-Sector NK-DSGE Model |
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YANG Man1,HAN Xin-tao21,2
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1.（1.Southwest Securities Equity Co.,Ltd;2.The Chongqing Branch of the People’s Bank of China）
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：This study constructs a six-sector New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model incorporating real estate demand and housing prices from the “dual-pillar” perspective to investigate whether housing prices should be included in the monetary policy framework.The analysis demonstrates that under the “monetary policy＋macroprudential policy” dual-pillar framework,changes in monetary policy exert a sustained impact on housing price fluctuations,indicating the effectiveness of proactive monetary policy intervention in the housing market.Furthermore,monetary policy incorporating housing price factors achieves better coordination with macroprudential policy compared to monetary policy excluding such factors.Specifically,the former yields smaller negative impacts on macroeconomic and financial stability and accelerates the return to equilibrium.Additionally,firm-specific technology shocks and monetary policy shocks exert stronger effects on medium-to-long-term economic growth and investment than real estate demand shocks or housing price shocks.Importantly,across all four types of shocks,welfare losses generated by housing-price-inclusive monetary policy are consistently smaller than those generated by its counterpart excluding housing prices.This paper not only enriches research on the relationship between asset prices and monetary policy but also provides valuable insights for central banks in selecting more effective monetary policy tools under China’s “dual-pillar” regulatory framework. |
| Key words: Key words：Real Estate Price;Monetary Policy;Macroprudential Policy;NK-DSGE |
