| 摘要: |
| 摘要：在全球气候变化加剧的背景下，极端气候事件频发，气候风险正成为系统性金融风险的重要诱因。故从气候风险视角出发探究其对国内大宗商品的影响，主要通过分析气候风险冲击对大宗商品价格影响渠道的机制以及气候风险对大宗商品价格的异质性影响，利用2014年1月份到2023年6月份的数据，构建TVP-SV-VAR模型来研究气候风险冲击对国内大宗商品价格的时变影响，并对各类别大宗商品进行分类研究。研究发现：气候风险冲击对中国大宗商品价格具有显著的时变影响，且对不同类别大宗商品也具有差异性；不同特定时点下气候风险冲击对大宗商品价格具有不同的影响效果，且对单一类别的大宗商品影响也不同。研究对于维护大宗商品价格稳定、防范化解系统性金融风险和保障金融稳定具有重要意义。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：气候风险；大宗商品；TVP-SV-VAR模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F724.7 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“供给侧改革背景下中国通货膨胀动态行为及其宏观经济效应研究”（19BTJ021）。 |
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| The Impact of Climate Risk Shocks on China’s Commodity Prices |
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NIE Sa，CHEN Chun-ru
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（School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Minzu University）
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：In the context of the intensification of global climate change and the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events,climate risk is becoming an important incentive for systemic financial risks.Therefore,from the perspective of climate risk,this paper explores its impact on domestic commodities,mainly through analyzing the mechanism of the impact channel of climate risk impact on commodity prices and the heterogeneous impact of climate risk on commodity prices,using the data from January 2014 to June 2023.The TVP-SV-VAR model was constructed to study the time-varying effects of climate risk shocks on domestic commodity prices,and the classification of various commodities was studied.The results show that the climate risk impact has a significant time-varying effect on China’s commodity prices,and also has differences for different types of commodities;Climate risk shocks have different effects on commodity prices at different specific time points,and have different effects on a single category of commodities.The study is of great significance for maintaining the stability of commodity prices,preventing and resolving systemic financial risks and guaranteeing financial stability. |
| Key words: Key words：Climate Risk；Commodities；TVP-SV-VAR Model |
