| 摘要: |
| 摘要：“十四五”规划纲要提出稳慎推进人民币国际化。2022年10月，党的二十大报告提出要“有序推进人民币国际化”，再次对人民币国际化前行路径做出系统性规划。目前我国与多个国家和地区签署过双边货币互换协议，这是实现双边贸易稳定增长和人民币国际化的重要途径。基于2005－2022年52个国家和地区的年度非平衡面板数据，采用双重差分法，实证分析双边货币互换协议签订对双方进出口贸易的作用。研究结果表明：双边货币互换协议对双边贸易具有显著的正向效应；中国视角下货币互换协议表现出进出口贸易的差异性特征，即对中国进口贸易的影响显著大于出口贸易。基于此，提出相关政策建议：一是持续推进双边货币互换协议的完善和发展；二是持续有序推进人民币国际化进程；三是坚持高水平对外开放格局，改善进出口贸易不均衡。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：双边货币互换协议；进出口贸易；双重差分法；人民币国际化 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F752.7；F831.6 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The Impact of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements on Import and Export Trade——An Empirical Analysis Based on DID |
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WU Yu-jia
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（China School of Banking and Finance，University of International Business and Economics）
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposed to “Steadily and prudently promote RMB internationalization”.In October 2022，the report of the 20th Party Congress proposed to “Advance RMB internationalization in an orderly manner”，whic once again makes a systematic plan for the path of RMB internationalization.At present，China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with many countries and regions，which is an important way to achieve the stable growth of bilateral trade and the process of RMB internationalization.Based on annual unbalanced panel data of 52 countries and regions from 2005 to 2022，the study uses a DID model to analyze the impact of bilateral currency swap agreement signing on import and export trade.The empirical results indicate that bilateral currency swap agreements have a significant positive effect on bilateral trade；the currency swap agreements from China’s perspective show differential characteristics of import and export trade，i.e.，the impact on China’s import trade is significantly larger than that on export trade.Based on this，relevant policy recommendations are proposed：first，continue to promote the improvement and development of bilateral currency swap agreements；second，continue to promote the process of RMB internationalization in an orderly manner；the third is to adhere to the pattern of opening up to the outside world at a high level，and improve the imbalance of import and export trade. |
| Key words: Key words：Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements；Import and Export Trade；DID；RMB Internationalization |
