| 摘要: |
| 摘要：从地方债认购倍数、各省地方债与城投债发行利差、境外资金对城投债与地方债的持有量变化等角度，分析境内外资金对券种的投资偏好差异，初步测算各省可行性地方债置换规模并提出城投化债方案。研究发现：（1）本轮化债之前，各省地方债发行利率均低于该省AAA级城投债发行利率，并且发生过城投风险事件省份的利差更大；化债之后，利差有收窄趋势；（2）投资者对某省地方债的偏好高于该省城投债，并且境内资金对发生城投风险事件省份地方债的偏好更加明显；（3）按照2022年财政收入和地方债余额测算，除吉林和云南外，其余省份地方债发行规模尚未触及阈值，存在地方债置换空间。基于上述实证结论，提出城投债化解的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：城投债；地方债；债券置换；可行性债务置换规模 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F812.5 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on Urban Construction Investment Corporation Debt Solution from the Perspective of Government Bond Replacement |
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LI Jin1，HAN Li-yan2，31,2,3
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1.（1.China Postal Savings Bank Co.Ltd,Investment Banking Department;2.Beihang University,School of Economics and Management;3.Beijing Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Applications）
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：This article analyzes the differences in investment preferences of domestic and foreign funds towards securities from the perspectives of subscription multiples,interest rate differentials between government bonds and urban construction investment corporation bonds,and changes in the holdings of overseas funds.It also preliminarily calculates feasible government bond replacement scales and proposes different urban construction investment corporation debt solution for different provinces.Research has found that:1.Before July in 2023,the government bond interest rates in each province were lower than the AAA-level urban investment corporation bond interest rates in the same province,and provinces with risk events had larger spreads;After July in 2023,the interest rate spread tends to narrow.2.Investors have a higher preference for government bonds in a certain province than for the urban investment corporation bonds,and domestic funds have a more pronounced preference for those in provinces where urban investment corporation risk events occur.3.According to the calculation of fiscal revenue and government debt scale in 2022,except for Jilin and Yunnan provinces,the scale of government bond issuance in other provinces has not yet reached the safety line,and there is room for government bond replacement.Based on the above empirical conclusions,this article proposes policy recommendations as follows:(1) Provinces with room for government bond replacement and a large interest rate difference between government bonds and urban investment corporation bonds should increase their government bond issuance limits to alleviate short-term liquidity pressure and get more room for the integration and transformation of urban investment corporation;(2) Provinces where there is feasible space for government bond replacement but no much difference in interest rates between government bonds and urban investment corporation bonds should moderately increase the limit of local bond issuance,and still mainly solve the urban investment corporation debt by integrating local high-quality assets and accelerating transformation;(3) Provinces that have not yet experienced risk events should get more support in policy,resource,and strategic guidence.The urban investment corporations in these provinces should be strengthened to play a greater role in the integration of industry and finance. |
| Key words: Key words：Urban Investment Construction Bonds;Government Bonds;Feasible Debt;Replacement Scale |
