| 摘要: |
| 摘 要：能耗“双控”是从源头改善中国化石能源路径依赖与碳脱钩的重要举措，也是实现“双碳”目标的关键支撑以及加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要抓手。本文以重庆市为例，借助IO-SDA模型、LMDI模型考察“双控”影响因素的时间异质性，并以蒙特卡洛模拟对2021－2035年“双控”成果概率分布进行动态情景分析，进而研判其“双控”路径。研究结果表明：（1）重庆市能耗总量最主要的促进因素与抑制因素分别是最终需求与能源效率，最终需求中固定资本形成与净流出是影响能耗总量的决定因子，而能耗强度的主要影响因素表现为能效提升与经济整体结构优化；（2）各时期影响能耗“双控”的因素具有异质性，当前技术带来的能效提升所形成的节能空间已然不足，新时期能耗“双控”工作着力点已由能效提升向经济结构优化升级转变；（3）按当前政策发展趋势，完成2021－2035年能耗强度控制目标具有一定挑战，同时技术突破情景作为实现“双控”目标的长期最优选择，在“十四五”时期也将面临“双控”不达标的问题，因此政府部门需要在政策与技术领域进行双重优化调整。本研究可为中国省域“双控”工作的开展与完善提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：能耗“双控”；因素分解；路径分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F124 |
| 基金项目:无 |
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| Factor Decomposition,Scenario Simulation and Realization Path of China’s Regional Energy Consumption “Dual Control” Target under the “Dual Carbon” Target——Take Chongqing as an Example |
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LIU Zi-min，WANG Jian-yu，LI Juan，ZHANG Ya
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College of Economics and Management，Southwest University
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract：“Dual control” of energy consumption is an important measure to improve China’s fossil energy path dependence and carbon decoupling from the source,and it is also a key support for the realization of the “dual carbon” goal and an important starting point for accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.Taking Chongqing as an example,this paper uses the IO-SDA model and LMDI model to investigate the temporal heterogeneity of the “dual control” influencing factors,and uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the dynamic scenario of the “dual control” outcome probability distribution from 2021 to 2035,and then study and judge its “dual control” path.The research results show that：(1) The main promoting and inhibiting factors of the total energy consumption in Chongqing are final demand and energy efficiency,respectively.The formation and net outflow of fixed capital in the final demand are the determinants that affect the total energy consumption,while The main influencing factors of energy consumption intensity are the improvement of energy efficiency and the optimization of the overall economic structure;(2) The factors influencing the “dual control” of energy consumption in different periods are heterogeneous,and the space for energy saving caused by the improvement of energy efficiency brought by current technology is already insufficient.The focus of the “dual control” of energy consumption in the new period has shifted from energy efficiency improvement to economic structure optimization and upgrading;(3) According to the current policy development trend,it will be challenging to achieve the energy intensity control target in 2021－2035.At the same time,the technological breakthrough scenario,as the long term optimal choice to achieve the “dual control” target,will also face the problem of “dual control” failure in 2021－2025.Therefore,the government needs to make double adjustment and optimization in the policy and technology fields.This research provides a certain reference for the development and improvement of China’s provincial “dual control” work. |
| Key words: Key words：“Dual Control” of Energy Consumption;Factor Decomposition;Path Analysis |
