| 摘要: |
| 根据联合国贸发会的统计数据，疫情对FDI的影响程度已经远超2008年全球金融危机。在此背景下，本文通过理论分析和实证检验探讨疫情对中国FDI流入的影响、疫情是否改变了我国FDI流入的影响因素和疫情常态化下我国FDI流入恢复的支撑因素等。断点回归模型结果显示，新冠疫情对各样本省市FDI流入的影响属于中短期效应，疫情并没有导致影响样本省市FDI流入的因素发生本质变化，且各样本省市FDI流入受疫情影响不同、恢复快慢也不同。进一步的统计分析和实证检验显示，FDI流入在样本省市均具有较强的惯性，中部地区的湖北和江西FDI流入受经济变量的影响比较显著，而东部地区的广东、江苏和上海FDI流入的影响因素应更多地考虑营商环境、产业结构特征和人力资本等，此外基础设施对样本省市FDI流入的影响并不显著。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：新冠疫情；外商直接投资；断点回归模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F832.6 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Has the Epidemic Changed the Factors Affecting FDI Inflow in China? |
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ZHAI Chao-ying1，WANG Lei-qun21,2
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1.（1.Wuhan Branch of People’s Bank of China;2.Huangshi Sub-branch of People’s Bank of China）
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| Abstract: |
| According to the statistics of UNCTAD, the impacts of COVID-19 on FDI have far exceeded that of the 2008 global financial crisis.In this context, through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper discusses the impact of the epidemic on China’s FDI inflow, whether it has changed the influencing factors of China’s FDI inflow, and the supporting factors of China’s FDI inflow recovery under the normalization of the epidemic.The results of breakpoint regression model show that the impact of COVID-19 on FDI inflow in all sample provinces and cities is a short and medium term effect, and that the epidemic does not lead to the essential change of factors affecting FDI inflow in all sample provinces and cities.Moreover, the impact of COVID-19 on FDI inflow in all sample provinces and cities is different, and the recovery speed of FDI inflow is also different.Further statistical analysis and empirical test show that FDI inflows in the samples all have strong inertia,that Hubei and Jiangxi’s FDI inflows are affected by the economic variables, and that Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai’s FDI inflows are more affected by business environment, characteristics of industrial structure and human capital.In addition, infrastructure has no significant impact on FDI inflow in sample provinces and cities. |
| Key words: Key words：COVID-19；Foreign Direct Investment；Breakpoint Regression Model |
