| 摘要: |
| 本文从证券市场视角出发，采用“冲击权重法”，选取宏观经济运行状态、股票市场、银行安全、上市公司质量、个体投资者情绪、债券市场、金融衍生品市场以及对外经济状况8个方面的29个指标，构建我国系统性金融风险预警指标体系，并运用证券市场数据对其进行验证，发现该风险预警指标体系较为有效。同时，本文检验了当前我国系统性金融风险水平，结果显示其处于可控范围内。最后，本文从证券市场的角度提出系统性金融风险防范的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 系统性；金融风险；预警；指标体系 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F832 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Construction of Early Warning System of Systemic Risk in China——Based on the Perspective of Security Market |
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WU Jian，GU Wei-qing
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Southwest Securities Co.,Ltd
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| Abstract: |
| From the perspective of the security market,this paper adopts the “impact weight method”,and selects the eight aspects includes namely,macroeconomic operation status,stock market,bank security,the quality of listed companies,individual investor behavior effects,bond market,financial derivatives market and foreign economic conditions,total of 29 indicators for reference to construct a systemic risk early warning system suitable for our country’s situation.Using the past actual data to verify it,this paper finds that the early warning index system is effective.At the same time,this paper estimates the current systemic risk in China and shows that it is under control.Finally,from the perspective of the security market,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on preventing systemic risk. |
| Key words: Systemic;Financial Risk;Warning;Index System |
