| 摘要: |
| 理清资本投入和市场潜能对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的影响，对深入贯彻和推动“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以“一带一路”沿线44个国家为例，利用空间计量模型和经济增长模型，在测算44个国家1995－2018年生产率资本存量和市场潜能的基础上，对44个国家经济增长的动力源泉及其空间溢出效应进行实证分析。研究发现：（1）资本投入是“一带一路”沿线44个国家经济增长的主要动力源，资本投入每增加1%，经济平均增长0.361%；（2）空间溢出效应是“一带一路”44个国家经济发展不可忽视的重要因素，市场潜能每增加1%，经济产出平均提高0.419%，超过资本投入的产出弹性。（3）进一步的机制分析，发现产业集聚和居民消费是资本投入、市场潜能促进经济增长的两条渠道。本文的研究为评估“一带一路”沿线国家资本投入和市场潜能的影响效果提供了数据支撑和分析视角，也为探索“一带一路”国家经济持续发展提供了政策参考。 |
| 关键词: 一带一路；资本投入；市场潜能；经济增长 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F832 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金西部项目“后危机时代一带一路沿线国家经济增长趋势与结构演化研究”（18XJL011）；重庆大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“数据生产要素统计核算问题研究”（2021CDJSSKZD05）。 |
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| Capital Investment，Market Potential and Economic Growth——Evidence from Countries along the “Belt and Road” |
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CAO Yue-qun，WEI Xi-xi，CUI Huan-yu
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Chongqing University School of Public Administration
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| Abstract: |
| To clarify the impact of capital investment and market potential on the economic growth of countries along the “Belt and Road” is of great significance to the in-depth implementation and promotion of the development of the “Belt and Road” strategy.This article takes 44 countries along the “Belt and Road” as an example，using spatial measurement models and economic growth models，on the basis of measuring the productivity capital stock and market potential of 44 countries from 1995 to 2018，and empirically analyzes the economic growth of 44 countries.The source of power and its spatial spillover effects.The study found that：①Capital investment is the main source of economic growth in 44 countries along the “Belt and Road”.Specifically，for every 1% increase in capital investment，the economy will grow by an average of 0.361%；②The spatial spillover effect is the “Belt and Road” 44 An important factor that cannot be ignored in the economic development of a country.For every 1% increase in market potential，economic output will increase by 0.419%，which exceeds the output elasticity of capital input.③Further mechanism analysis found that industrial agglomeration and household consumption are the two channels through which capital investment and market potential promote economic growth.The research in this article provides data support and analysis perspectives for evaluating the impact of capital investment and market potential of countries along the “Belt and Road”，and also provides a policy reference for exploring the sustainable economic development of the “Belt and Road” countries. |
| Key words: One Belt One Road;Capital Investment;Market Potential;Economic Growth |
