| 摘要: |
| 蛛网模型是一类典型的具有时滞效应的经济学模型，与无时滞的系统相比较，具有更加复杂的动态特性，拥有非常重要的理论意义与实际价值，在市场经济中被广泛的应用。传统的蛛网模型由于过于简化，并且将变量视为连续出现，不能够很好的贴合实际。本文将运用差分方程对蛛网模型进行描述，结合数学和经济的双重意义进行研究。蛛网模型的核心是预期理论，即预期价格的确定，本文将不断完善的预期理论融入到差分方程形式下的蛛网模型之中，推导模型的稳定性条件，并对其优缺点进行分析。在完成理论分析之后，以2000～2019国内猪肉市场的产量和价格的波动为对象进行实证研究，对2020年猪肉市场的产量和价格进行理性预测，并提出改进政府调控的具体措施和建议。 |
| 关键词: 蛛网模型，时滞系统，差分方程，预期理论 |
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| Different Expected Cobweb Models in the form of Difference Equation and their Stability |
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Ren Jia
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| Abstract: |
| Cobweb model is a typical economic model with time lag effect. Compared with the system without time lag, it has more complex dynamic characteristics and has very important theoretical significance and practical value. It has been widely used in the market economy.The traditional cobweb model is too simplified and the variables are regarded as continuous, so it can not fit the actual situation well.In this paper, the difference equation will be used to describe the cobweb model, combined with the double meaning of mathematics and economy.The core of the cobweb model is the expected theory, that is, the determination of the expected price.After the completion of the theoretical analysis, taking the fluctuation of the output and price of the domestic pork market in 2000~2019 as the object of empirical research, the rational forecast of the output and price of the pork market in 2020 was made, and the specific measures and suggestions for improving the government regulation were put forward. |
| Key words: Cobweb Model,Time Delay System,Difference Equation,Expectation Theory |
