| 摘要: |
| 作为积极财政政策的重要组成部分，地方政府债券是支持基础设施补短板、稳投资的重要资金来源。在宏观经济下行压力持续增大背景下，地方政府债券发行规模扩大、覆盖领域增多，对公共投资促进作用不断增强。为了解地方政府债的外部效应，我们对私人部门投资、工业增加值等其他领域进行实证研究，发现在当前债务水平下，增发专项债可以有效提升工业增加值、民间投资，为地方债在经济运行中的作用提供理论支撑。针对地方政府债资金拨付实施中存在的问题，需通过完善制度、优化发债流程等措施进行优化，提高地方债资金使用效率。 |
| 关键词: 地方政府债；外部性；VAR模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F830.2 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Study on the Externality of Local Government Bonds to Economic Growth |
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ZHENG Lei
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Jinan Branch of The People's Bank of China
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| Abstract: |
| As an important part of the proactive fiscal policy，local government bonds is an important source of funds to support infrastructure to strengthen weak links and stabilize investment.Against the backdrop of growing downward pressure on the macro-economy，local government special bonds has expanded in scale and covered more areas，playing a stronger role in promoting public investment.In order to understand the external effect of local government bonds，we conducted empirical research on private sector investment，industrial added value and other fields，and found that under the current debt level of local government special bonds，additional special debt can effectively boost industrial added value and private investment.There are still many problems in the implementation of local government special bonds，which need to be improved through building a complete legal system and optimizing the process of issuing bonds. |
| Key words: Local Government Special Bonds；Externality；VAR Model |
