| 摘要: |
| 近年来，住户部门杠杆率的问题引发广泛关注。本课题在梳理和对比我国住户部门杠杆率水平变化趋势的基础上，采用面板数据门限回归模型分析其对经济运行的影响，并测算其合理水平。实证结果显示，当住户部门杠杆率过低，即小于21.43%，或过高，即大于32.94%时，对经济增长有显著的负向影响；而当其位于21.43%至32.94%之间时，样本数据显示，对经济增长有微弱的正向影响。 |
| 关键词: 住户部门杠杆率 合理水平 门限面板模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:重庆市金融学会2018年度两江金融基金项目课题优秀奖 |
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| The impact of household sector leverage on economic performance and reasonable level empirical research |
|
wujinxiao
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The People''s Bank of China,Chongqing Operation Office
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years, the issue of leverage in the household sector has caused widespread concern. On the basis of sorting out and comparing the changing trend of the leverage ratio of the household sector in China, this topic uses a panel data threshold regression model to analyze its impact on economic operations and calculate its reasonable level. The empirical results show that when the leverage of the household sector is less than 21.43%, or more than 32.94%, it has a significant negative impact on economic growth; and when it is between 21.43 and 32.94, the sample data shows that it has a slight positive impact on economic growth. |
| Key words: household sector leverage ratio, reasonable level, threshold panel model |
