| 摘要: |
| 近些年我国储蓄率虽有所下降但仍处于世界高位，但另一方面，“储蓄不足”问题也较为明显。随着贷款购房者增多，居民用于归还自身债务的被动储蓄增多，资金流入房地产部门，使得其他企业部门获得资金的难度加大。基于此，本文利用2018年人民银行南昌中心支行开展的江西省居民家庭专项调查数据，实证检验了家庭住房套数和房价预期对居民主动储蓄率的影响。结果发现：家庭住房套数与居民主动储蓄率显著负相关，房贷支出加大压低了主动储蓄率；房价预期与居民主动储蓄率显著正相关，并且房价预期的影响是异质性的。“一正一负”的作用力不仅吸收了居民当期消费，也透支了未来的居民消费。资金过多流入房地产市场，挤占了实体经济发展资源，造成居民“储蓄率高”与“储蓄不足”现象并存。 |
| 关键词: 家庭住房套数；房价预期；居民主动储蓄率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F126.2 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Family Housing Units，House Price Expectations and Residents Active Saving Rate——Based on the Data of the Survey of Households in Jiangxi Province |
|
GAO Wen-bo，TANG Lu-ping，GAO Ying1,2,3
|
|
1.Fuzhou Central Branch of the People’s Bank of China;2.Jiangxi Development and Reform Commission;3.Nanchang Central Branch of the Peoples Bank of China
|
| Abstract: |
| China’s savings rate has declined in recent years but is still at the world’s highest level.On the other hand，with the increase of loan buyers，the passive savings used by residents to repay their debts have increased，the funds have flowed into the real estate sector，the difficulty of obtaining funds by the enterprise sector has increased，and the problem of “insufficient savings” has arisen.Based on this，this paper investigates the impact of the number of family housing units and the house price expectation on the residents’ active savings rate by using the data from a special survey of households in Jiangxi Province conducted by the Nanchang Central Branch of the People’s Bank of China in 2018.The results show that the number of family housing units has negatively correlated with the active saving rate，the increase of the mortgage expenditure reduces it，the house price expectation has positively correlated with the active saving rate，and the impact of the house price expectation is heterogeneous.The effect of “one positive and one negative” not only absorbed the current consumption of residents，but also overdrawn the future consumption of residents.Too much capital flows into the real estate market，crowding out the resources for the development of the real economy，resulting in the coexistence of “high savings rates” and “insufficient savings” for residents. |
| Key words: Number of Family Housing；House Price Expectations；Resident’s Active Savings Rate |
